Phase 3 – the recovery and possible boom (2022 onwards)
there is mounting evidence that Australia has handled the health and the economic impacts of COVID19 as well as any other nation on earth. This will be an enormous achievement if it can be sustained without re-infection waves or long-term economic damage. The jury is still very much out but it’s promising.
If this turns out to be true, we believe Australia becomes the global magnet for skilled migration – especially from the UK and the USA which are particularly hard hit by the virus and therefore likely by the coming recession/depression. As Australia’s economy is a significant beneficiary from population growth and export education, we think Governments will encourage this trend, once domestic unemployment has dropped. At this point, it seems likely to us and an increasing number of other analysts and policy people that Australia will profit from our status as a safe, well run place and have a migration-driven economic boom for much of the 2020’s from perhaps 2022 onwards. If that is the case, both property and rental values generally will likely continue to increase – particularly if interest rates stay low which seems likely for at least the medium term.
So there is light at the end of the tunnel! We think.